There is not now any smart money betting that Congress will produce a substantive energy and climate bill in this term. Health insurance reform left gapping holes in the fabric of Congressional cooperation and the Gulf oil spill has not left a moment to repair them.
Though the nation is almost unanimous in its backing of New Energy and largely in favor of action on climate change, the Congress and the enthusiasts are polarized. Between the Old Energy advocates who don’t even seem willing to talk about climate change and the climate change activists who don’t want to talk about the kind of compromise that might bring around some moderate conservatives, there really isn’t even much to talk about.
Each side has its champions and there are several bills with measured compromises that very few support. The economic benefits lost to this inaction is deeply troubling but the only reason there is any hope of legislation getting through the Senate is that Senators are so full of themselves. They could conceivably remain oblivious to the administration’s struggles with the mess in the Gulf, the mess in Afghanistan, the mess in the economic recovery and the many small messes of each passing moment and pass something.
But even if the Senate does squeeze out some legislation, its bill would likely be irreconcilable with a very different House bill passed in the very different and now distant past of the summer of 2009.
It’s a wonderful moment in which to pause and wonder what an ideal energy-climate bill could be. Evaluating Renewable Portfolio Standards and Carbon Cap Scenarios in the U.S. Electric Sector, from market and policy impact analysts at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) does some of that.
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